Tag Archive: general election

If his situation becomes dire, President Obama might throw Joe Biden under the bus in a last-ditch effort to shake up the November election. Photo credit: Hugh Dillon/WENN.com.

At Ohio State University today, President Obama officially kicked off his 2012 election campaign. However, he did so in an utterly unspectacular fashion. Despite his high hopes for the November election, President Obama failed to attract a large enough crowd to even come close to filling the 20,000-seat stadium, with estimates by the campaign itself showing only 70% attendance there. Clearly, the president’s campaign is suffering from a major enthusiasm gap, and if Obama has any hopes of surviving the election, he will have to address this gap. Ironically, he may decide to take a leaf from the book of his 2008 general election challenger John McCain and attempt to invigorate the Democratic base by tossing Vice-President Joe Biden just before the election.

President Obama could benefit slightly from such a move, but he could also suffer tremendously. For some voters, the elimination of Joe Biden would be a refreshing change, a sign of new life in the clearly stagnant Obama administration. However, for others, such a move would indicate the utter desperation of the Obama campaign for a victory in November. Biden has worked very hard for President Obama, even earning the nickname “campaigner-in-chief” for his extraordinary work on the campaign trail for Mr. Obama. Although certainly not without his gaffes (don’t even get me started…), Biden has been a crucial asset for the president, and his dismissal would clearly indicate to educated voters that the Obama administration is resorting to desperation to win the election.

If you were wondering why I think Biden’s dismissal is on the table, it is because he has been increasingly cut off from the administration in recent weeks. Biden is no longer included in President Obama’s Sunday campaign meetings, which are – according to the New York Times – reserved for “trusted confidants.” I, as well as the writers at the Weekly Standard, think that this indicates that Biden potentially is not considered to be a trusted confidant by the administration and therefore has been deemed expendable. It is entirely possible that the president will drop Biden to gain political points, but I sincerely doubt the effectiveness of this tactic. If Biden is fired, you can rest assured that the Obama administration is in its death throes.

No love for the Obama administration

There are only so many wealthy Democrats. In mere months, President Obama will have great difficulty raising the money he needs from them.

As President Obama’s approval numbers continue to plummet, his fundraising is proving to be much less bombastic than that of last year. In his Wall Street Journal op-ed this morning, Karl Rove provided some heartening insight into President Obama’s fundraising.

Rove pointed out that President Obama is falling far short of his fundraising goal of a billion dollars. He attributed this to several factors, but he focused in particular upon the unwillingness of mainstream Democrats to donate to the Obama campaign. This is extremely evident when one takes a look at President Obama’s fundraising patterns. Our president has spent the majority of his fundraising time with wealthy Hollywood Democrats who have money to spend on $10,000 a plate dinners and such. However, the day will come when this source of easy money will dry up, and President Obama will be forced to turn his fundraising to everyday Americans (who are less than willing to donate to his campaign).

The fact that few Democrats are willing to donate to their incumbent president reveals the biggest problem for the Obama campaign thus far. Most Democrats that still support Obama feel that he is doomed to lose the November election. Because of this, few of these Democrats are willing to open their pocketbooks for the president for fear of losing their money in vain. This resignation on the part of Democrats could also play into voter turnout. If Democrats don’t even donate to their candidate for fear that he may lose, it is entirely possible that these Democrats might not even show up to the voting booths in November if they believe that their candidate cannot win.

President Obama has a massive enthusiasm gap to deal with, and I believe that this gap will lead to his downfall in November. While Republicans are itching to get to the voting booth in November to resoundingly crush President Obama, Democrats are resigning themselves to a Republican victory. Unless the Obama campaign can convince Democrats that Mr. Obama can in fact win his bid for a second term, our president will surely lose in November.

It's now only a matter of time before Romney becomes the GOP nominee. Pictured: Romney campaigning in Mississippi (Evan Vucci/AP)

After Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney made it clear that he was going to be the eventual victor in the GOP primary. Conservatives are finally joining the former governor’s ranks, thanks to growing disappointment in the lack of depth of the other candidates in the race. Although Mr. Romney’s opponents will put up a fight and take important states and delegates, Romney will be in a dominant position when the Republican National Convention rolls around in late August.

However, many conservatives are still looking for an alternative to Mr. Romney. The fundamental weakness of the current crop of candidates is precluding these voters from making a lasting decision on any other candidate in the race. This is a plus for Mitt Romney, as no candidate will ever gain enough ground to truly challenge him  for the nomination. At the same time, however, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are steadily chomping away at Mitt Romney’s delegate count. A last minute surge by either candidate could cause Romney to fall short of the 1,144 delegates he needs to win decisively at the Convention this summer.

By the looks of it, all of the candidates that are currently in the race will stay in for quite awhile. Newt Gingrich said yesterday that he plans to stay in the race until the Convention, regardless of his delegate count, and Ron Paul plans to do the same despite the fact that he has failed to win a single state thus far. Rick Santorum, the current not-Romney, will also stay in the race until the Convention. Since there are 2,286 delegates up for grabs and 1,144 needed to win, Mr. Romney must acquire more than 50% of the delegates in every state. With three other candidates in the race, however, this majority vote will be difficult to maintain.

The dilemma that faces Mr. Romney is simple yet extremely concerning. If the GOP race continues until the Convention in late August, Romney will have only two months to raise money and to execute his general election strategy against President Obama, and this lack of time could give President Obama the advantage he needs to take back the White House this November. This, of course, is not a viable option for the GOP at all.

Romney needs to campaign vigorously and shut out his fellow candidates. If he can secure the necessary delegates a month or two before the Convention, Mr. Romney will have plenty of time to prepare his political machine to take on the monstrous one that President Obama currently possesses. Otherwise, a prolonged primary battle will cost Romney dollars, time, and possibly the White House itself.

Obama’s election prospects dim

This election prediction is based upon President Obama's current approval numbers. Clearly, there's a lot of red.

On the left is an election prediction based upon President Obama’s current state-by-state approval numbers. Clearly, as the sea of red indicates, our president will have some seriously difficulties when the election arrives this November.

In a new Gallup poll, state-by-state results show a dismal situation for President Obama. His approval number, averaged across all the states, is an abysmal 44%, and in swing states, things are similarly awful. In Pennsylvania and Florida – crucial swing states – the president’s approval numbers are 45% and 43% respectively. And it even gets worse for the president: in my notoriously-liberal home state of California, President Obama’s approval barely ekes out a majority, with 50.1% of poll respondents approving of Obama’s performance as leader of the free world. Ouch!

The Gallup poll also made comparisons between President Obama’s approval ratings last year and his ratings this year. Below is an excerpt from the Gallup’s poll analysis:

Overall, Obama averaged 44% job approval in his third year in office, down from 47% in his second year. His approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in most states, with Wyoming, Connecticut, and Maine showing a marginal increase, and Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan, and Georgia showing declines of less than a full percentage point. The greatest declines were in Hawaii, South Dakota, Nebraska, and New Mexico.

Even in home-front states like Hawaii, President Obama is having great difficulty holding on to his devoted followers, and only three states posted “marginal increases” from his approval numbers last year. Clearly, what Republicans are doing is working very well thus far. By revealing the utter failures of President Obama’s economic policies, conservatives have greatly increased the knowledge of concerned voters and have put President Obama in a very difficult position. Hopefully, the downward trend of Obama’s approval numbers will continue until he is ousted from office this coming November.

If unemployment begins to rise again, President Obama's already lacking economic platform will disappear completely. Pictured: An unemployment line.

President Obama has long held that the gradual decrease in unemployment is the direct result of his stimulus spending programs and other big government economic policies. However, in a speech two days ago in Indiana, Charles Evans – the president of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank – expressed his concern that this decrease in unemployment is only “transitory.” Moreover, Evans warned of the possibility of an increase in unemployment by the end of the year. If Mr. Evans is correct, could President Obama’s reelection bid this year be doomed?

Firstly, President Obama’s reelection chances depend heavily upon the economy. In a CBS News poll conducted from Jan. 4-8, 55% of respondents said that the biggest problem facing the United States today is the economy and job creation. Discounting those who answered “other” (22%), the nearest runner-up answer of any remote specificity was “politicians and government,” polling at a minuscule 5%. Economic concerns have also been reflected in President Obama’s approval rating. According to Gallup polling data, President Obama’s approval numbers have improved by six percentage points from September 2011 to January 2012. Interestingly, this improvement corresponds with a .6% decrease in measured unemployment. Thus, if unemployment continues to trend downward, President Obama will be viewed more favorably by voters this November.

On the other hand, however, an increase in unemployment would severely cripple President Obama’s reelection bid. His economic argument centers on two main points: the first being that his policies have reduced the duration of the recession, and the second being that increased regulation protects consumers and encourages job growth. An increase in unemployment would greatly reduce the effectiveness of these arguments because such an increase would indicate both the continuation of the recession and the negative impact of Obama’s regulations on the economy. Thus, President Obama would have an abysmal record of job creation in an election season where the economy is the most important issue. Doomed? I’d certainly say so.


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